Gartner hype cycle - where are we today with 3D printing?
The Atomic Layers: S6E6 (00153)
Atomic Layer of the Day:
10 and 11 years ago, CES in Las Vegas saw two editions filled with spectacular 3D printer launches, most of which ended in major failure. Leading the pack of disappointments were two companies that failed the most: Avi Reichental-led 3D Systems and Bre Pettis-led MakerBot.
At the time, both were the faces and ambassadors of the 3D printing industry. According to their vision, 3D printers were supposed to become consumer devices, found in every home and used as commonly as coffee machines.
Want a coffee? Turn on the machine and pour it into a 3D-printed cup.
As we know, this ended in a fiasco, with both men stepping down from their companies. A subsequent industry crisis followed, that led to the collapse of many companies producing desktop-grade 3D printers, materials, accessories, etc.
Then, new people emerged. This new wave stopped talking about 3D printers in every home and instead focused on putting them in every company. But these weren’t to be used for prototyping as before—they were intended for the production of end-use parts, promising to revolutionize manufacturing.
This new narrative was led by Ric Fulop’s Desktop Metal, Benny Buller’s Velo3D, and… Avi Reichental’s Nexa3D (alongside companies like HP, Markforged, and the old guard—Stratasys, 3D Systems, and SLM Solutions among others).
This, too, ended in failure—or rather, the failure is ongoing, and we’re waiting to see how it ends.
To clarify, the failure isn’t the idea of using 3D printers in industry for end-use parts. It’s the specific vision of that idea, Ric Fulop and others presented to the world.
As some of you may know, I published an interesting—albeit somewhat controversial—article on LinkedIn today about the need to change the narrative around AM and find new leaders for the industry.
While discussing the article with others, I had a thought: where exactly are we on the Gartner hype cycle?
I assume I don’t need to explain the Gartner hype cycle to any of you?
For the consumer 3D printing sector, the first stage—the Technology Trigger—occurred around 2010–2011. The second stage—the Peak of Inflated Expectations—came in January 2015. This was on afromentioned CES, when 3D Systems showcased CocoJet, a chocolate 3D printer; Ultimaker revealed the GO and Extended models; Voxel8 unveiled its 3D printer for simultaneously printing electronics and enclosures; and XYZPrinting introduced its first ultra-affordable resin printer, the Nobel, along with the extremely cheap da Vinci Junior.
By the end of 2015, the industry was already sliding into the Trough of Disillusionment. However, since 2022, it has emerged from the trough and is now climbing the Slope of Enlightenment, thanks to Bambu Lab, Creality, Anycubic, and Phrozen. While we don’t know when the industry will reach the Plateau of Productivity, it’s clearly heading in that direction.
What about the industrial 3D printing sector?
In my view, the Technology Trigger occurred between 2015–2017 with the debuts of Desktop Metal, Markforged, Velo3D, HP MJF, and the transformation of Formlabs from a consumer-focused company to an industrial and medical one.
In 2022, the sector hit the Peak of Inflated Expectations, and since 2023, it has been sliding toward the Trough of Disillusionment. I don’t think this decline will stop until the end of 2026.
That said, I also believe another Technology Trigger is just around the corner, and it will be AI-oriented software. But that’s just my casual prediction, and there’s a 50-50 chance it’ll come true.
So, everyone in the consumer sector can rejoice—it’s happening! From here on out, things only improve.
But everyone in the industrial sector should brace themselves for tougher times ahead…
Atomic Layer from the Past:
News & Gossip:
AML3D has delivered 3D-printed copper-nickel components for the U.S. Navy's Virginia-Class nuclear submarine program. Produced in under five weeks using ARCEMY technology, the prototypes, valued at AUD $156,000, showcase AUKUS partnership benefits, advancing submarine supply chains and trilateral industrial collaboration.
UK-based Metalysis acquired 40 kW spheroidizer from Tekna.
And besides that, I got another portion of shitty news, but I don't have the mood to write about it at the moment. I wonder if other AM writers and journalists also receive them in as many quantities as I do? I have so much shit stories in a bucket, that I should become a farmer and fertilize the field with it.