Three hard truths AM industry needs to face in 2025
The Atomic Layers: S6E1 (00148)
Atomic Layer of the Day:
It's the first day of the New Year, and journalists, commentators, and analysts are busy crafting their predictions for the next 12 months (or they’ll do it tomorrow after recovering from their New Year’s hangovers).
But not me. I’m not going to predict anything because I know that forecasting the future is a game you usually lose. The only certain thing about the future is that it always turns out differently.
So instead, I’ll share what I expect, what I hope will happen, and what must happen for the AM industry to get back on track.
Below are three hard truths the AM industry will need to face in 2025. While they may sound like clickbait, read them carefully, and I’m confident you’ll agree with me.
Let’s begin!
#1. All failing companies must fail – AM industry needs to finish cleansing itself
Since 2023, we’ve watched one major industrial AM player after another—mostly in the U.S. but not exclusively—fall after burning through all the cash they raised from institutional and public investors. Right now, several of them—you know who I mean—are on life support, clinging to the hope of one final cash injection to burn through.
We shouldn’t let that happen. They should be allowed to fail.
I know how that sounds. I know these failures bring personal tragedies, challenges, and losses. Valuable achievements and resources—technologies, machines, know-how, and applications—will be lost forever.
But so be it.
Someone brought these companies to this point, and someone should be held accountable (though they likely won’t be). These businesses are beyond recovery. The unique opportunity they once had has been squandered. And the conditions for a second chance simply don’t exist anymore.
Company A, Company B, and Company C are fading before our eyes, hoping for another financial lifeline. But that won’t solve their problems. Staying afloat won’t equate to achieving success.
It will only prolong their terminal illness, with the same inevitable result: death.
When we set aside emotions and the shock value of the title this statement, the answer to the question “Can company ‘A’ return to its 2020 or 2021 position?” is a resounding no.
#2. Western companies must shift their focus – China has won in AM hardware, and competing with them in manufacturing is a dead end
One of the primary beneficiaries of 3D printing has always been the automotive industry, which is why I often use it for comparisons with the AM sector. While these industries are obviously connected, they’re not identical—the challenges of one aren’t a 1:1 match with the challenges of the other. But still, the analogy is useful!
Anyone remotely familiar with the global automotive market knows that Western automakers are watching the developments in China with growing fear. News about companies like BYD boasting 100,000 engineers in R&D or employing over a million workers might sound like propaganda, but when Xiaomi delivered 135,000 vehicles in 2024, it was a real shock.
Just eight years ago, Xiaomi was introducing its first smartphones to Europe and experimenting with smartwatches. Now they’re selling 135,000 electric vehicles. Unreal!
Yes, I’ve read the experts’ opinions claiming Xiaomi loses an average of $10,000 on every SU7 sold. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. But is Volkswagen making money on its EVs?
Now back to AM. The desktop market is already dominated by China. Prusa Research and UltiMaker are now just an “alternative options,” chosen by people who, for various reasons, don’t want to buy Chinese 3D printers.
On the desktop market, the only company still holding a strong position is Formlabs. For everyone else, the train has left the station.
Today, manufacturing a desktop-grade 3D printer in Europe or the U.S. is an aberration. In my opinion, the industrial-grade machine sector is heading in the same direction.
Maybe not in 2025 or even 2026, but by 2027, producing industrial PBF machines in Europe or the U.S. will be as economically unjustifiable as manufacturing low-cost FFF or resin-based 3D printers.
This sector is following the same path as automotive. Just look at the analogy: China (e.g., Xiaomi) first captured the market for the cheapest modes of transport—electric scooters, bikes, and mopeds, the automotive equivalents of desktop 3D printers. Now they’re entering the market with premium vehicles—the equivalents of SLS and SLM machines.
(I’m leaving out DED or Binder Jetting technologies as they’re too niche.)
In the long run, Western companies will lose the technological arms race—first on price, then on advancement. Today, Chinese systems are primarily competitive because of their price. But give them a year or two...
And look at it this way: the Chinese government subsidizes its companies, allowing them to operate at a loss, while U.S. and EU governments can, at best, fight back with tariffs. Notice the difference in logic?
So, what should leading Western manufacturers do? In my view, they should pivot toward software, technology implementation (comprehensive DfAM), and process automation (again, software).
Which brings us to the third point…
#3. AM must become more AI—much, much more…
Let me get straight to the point: this is about modeling (like the ones developed at Leap 71) and optimization (as pursued by companies like 1000 Kelvin). If these efforts reach the level these companies are promising, AM will transcend being an alternative to traditional manufacturing methods and become an absolute necessity.
It’s about projects like this:
Such a shift in design—if efficient, straightforward, and effective—has the potential to turn the manufacturing industry upside down, making 3D printers the default production tools.
This would, of course, be complemented by essential process simulations and optimization—hence the importance of firms like 1000 Kelvin.
This is the direction the entire Western AM industry should take. With all due respect, the current capabilities of Chinese companies in this area are limited to efforts like VoxelDance. It’s not progress—it’s something else. And so, it’s a challenge that can be effectively countered.
Pawel, are you saying that companies D, E, or F should shut down their 3D printer factories and start coding?
What I’m saying is that within less than five years, manufacturing AM machines in Europe or the USA will only be profitable with massive tariffs—assuming they’re imposed and sustained.
That’s simply the reality. If anyone currently producing machines feels comfortable with this scenario, they shouldn’t change a thing.
Thank you for your attention.
Happy New Year!
Atomic Layer from the Past:
01-01-2013: Centrum Druku 3D – the largest and longest-running AM portal in Poland was founded.
News & Gossip:
I received news that a certain office and production space in Ventura, California, USA, was some time ago suddenly and unexpectedly emptied. No one noticed anything during the day. Could it have happened under the cover of night?
I also heard that some time ago, some people from some media outlet received specific information about some company and did absolutely nothing with it. They still haven't done anything.
New open-source project - PolyDye, transforms FFF 3D printers into color printers using inkjet technology. Unlike multi-filament systems, it applies ink directly to each layer. Compatible with Marlin firmware, the open-source system requires specific hardware, costs $199, and is in beta testing. Full instructions are available on the project’s GitHub page.
China already start to apply AI software to metal AM hardware. The day will come earlier.